WEST CHESTER — The numbers for the upcoming Nov. 8 election in Chester County favor the Democratic Party.
In terms of voter registration, Democrats continue to outnumber their Republican counterparts at the polls, and their lead in total registrations has grown each week since mid-June.
When it comes to the county map, the party continues to hold sway in larger, more populous areas, while Republicans hold sway in mostly rural southern and western areas outside the suburban jungle of eastern and central Chester County.
For elected officials, the Democrats have more ballot winners than the Republican Party, which previously dominated elections in the district until state officials in the district began to reflect the changing population of the district.
And as for the elections won, since 2018, the “blue” party won more than six times more victories in November than the “red” party.
But as any veteran of electoral politics will gently remind anyone making bold predictions before the ballots are counted, the only numbers that matter are the final vote tallies. They say that the most important thing is to win on election day.
And while the county’s Democratic Party leader told Media New Group she remains confident the final results will be favorable to her candidates, some in the party are warning the results could be closer than expected.
“I am confident that our candidates will win on November 8,” Chester County Democratic Party Chairwoman Charlotte Valleau said in an email last week. “The Inflation Reduction Act is real action taken against inflation while simultaneously reducing our national debt. The CHIPs Act would reduce our dependence on China and combat supply chain problems ad inflation by manufacturing computer chips in that country.
“It’s time to elect candidates who accept the science of climate change, believe in the integrity of our elections, protect a woman’s right to choose, and pass meaningful gun laws to keep our children safe,” she said. “The Democratic Party is the only party whose candidates will actually vote for these reforms.”
But one longtime party activist said local leaders should be aware of the issues that could likely define the 2022 election here and across the state and country.
“This election boils down to two issues: inflation/the economy and protecting a woman’s right to choose,” said a party insider, who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak freely without repercussion. “Historically, the party opposite the White House has done very well in midterm elections. So it wouldn’t surprise me if the Republicans make some gains in Chester County.
“It all comes down to one person who can build their base,” the person said. “It’s going to be tough, but I expect (governor candidate Josh) Shapiro, (incumbent Congressman Chrissy) Hoolahan and U.S. Senate candidate John) Fetterman to win the election and do well in Chester County. The Republicans nominated (State Sen. Doug) Mastriano and (Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet) Oz, and they’re not going to play well here.”
Similarly, a GOP official who has worked in the party for decades predicted a good outcome for most Democratic candidates, but said results could change for some party incumbents.
“While a national red wave is real for Republicans, it won’t even be a red wave in Chester County,” said the person, who also asked to remain anonymous.
“Strategists on both sides see the election as largely status quo, where Democrats will continue to dominate,” they said. “Chrissy Hoolahan will win, as will most Democratic state legislative candidates. Josh Shapiro will defeat Doug Mastriano in Chester County. Mastriano is a nightmare candidate for suburban Republicans. It is shocking that our party leaders could not stop that train disaster.”
However, two races could suffer losses for incumbents on either side of the aisle,” they guessed.” (GOP) Tim Hennessy could be in trouble, and I would watch the race with (state Democrat) Christina Sappi because it could be close for the Democrats.
“Overall, Republicans in Chester County are burdened by increased Democratic voter registration and anemic fundraising for the Republican Party and its candidates,” party members said. “We’re on the verge of becoming like Montgomery County: a permanent Democratic majority. This is a sad time for those of us who have worked for many years to build the Republican Party.”
Chester County Republican Party Chairman Dr. Rafi Terzian could not be reached for comment by email.
As of Oct. 24, the last day to register for the upcoming election, the majority of registered voters in the district were Democrats, according to the State Department, which processes the state’s voter count. Of the 380,944 registered voters — the most in the county’s history — 159,621 (or 41.9 percent) are Democrats, while 152,188 (or 39.9 percent) are Republicans and 69,135 (or 18 percent) are independents or members of third parties such as libertarians. Green ones.
The Democratic-Republican margin, which dipped below 5,000 in May of this year, rebounded from that low to edge 7,433 last week. The lead has been growing steadily since late June, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the abortion case Roe v. Wade and ignited a spark among many voters who believed the case had crossed a line.
The 159,621 registered Democrats is an increase of more than 3,000 since June, or 1.8 percent, compared to a somewhat anemic GOP registration increase of 594, or 0.3 percent. For comparison, 1,500 more voters registered as independent or third-party candidates, which is 2.1 percent more than in June.
Geographically, the county continues to be divided between east and west, south and center.
Of the 10 most populous municipalities, seven — Tredyffrin, West Chester, Uchlan, Phoenixville, West Whiteland, East Whiteland and Caln — have more Democrats than Republicans, compared to West Goshen, East Goshen and West Bradford , where Republicans still outnumber Democrats. .
Overall, the district has more Republican municipalities (46 of 73), while Democrats have more districts where they outnumber the GOP, 12 to three. Coatesville, the county’s only city, has the largest majority of Democrats and Republicans, with 5,044 registered blue and 970 registered red.
The county’s most populous municipality, Tredyffryn, is dominated by Democrats, as is the smallest municipality, Modena.
To reach staff writer Michael P. Relahan, call 610-696-1544.